Month: November 2019

Buryball, Chapter 2: Morris is a Dancer

Buryball? Eh?” Confused? Read Chapter 0 for a short precis.

Chapter 1 is here.

After three hours’ ceaseless searching, the quest for a Director of Football ended in the form of Mark Wright. Yes, the former Liverpool centre back from my childhood in the 90s who seemed to have perfected the art of putting through his own net. Thankfully, he’s not terrible in his new position, so he should be of some use. His appointment has not shifted the bookies’ pre-season odds – 1885 Bury are predicted to come 22nd… out of 22. Whilst having to knit together 29 extremely youthful individuals into something resembling a squad probably has something to do with it, 175-1 does seem a bit long.

I also agreed to pay out high collective bonuses to the team in order to further incentivise progress in both league and cup competition. Doing so doesn’t contravene any of the five tenets of Buryball, especially as the differences are so small.

It then came time to choose my captain and vice for the campaign. I’m sure you’ll agree that the names of the players augur well…

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Games in the National League come thick and fast; August alone contains seven, starting off with…

(Bury 1885 score first):

Brackley Town (a) – 1-0

An encouraging start down in Northamptonshire. Local lad Denilson Carvalho capped off a fine performance on his debut by grabbing the decisive goal, making the most of some slack marking to rifle home from a Simeon Oure corner. 61% possession on the road is a great platform to build on as well, and it’s likely to be a style that will frustrate the opposition on good days, and the Shakers faithful on bad ones.

Blyth Spartans (h) – 0-0

Ah, Blyth Spartans – a name that still makes fans of a certain age shudder. The visitors’ tactic was the archetypal one for the sixth tier – put 10 men behind the ball and lump it long to the target man. It worked a treat, nullifying the Shakers’ attacking threats. Not a single clear-cut chance was created by either side, but Blyth could’ve won it at the death – a free header at the far post hit the side netting…

Gateshead (a) – 1-0

Another side that know all about financial problems, and also boasting a sprightly central defensive partnership of Mike Williamson and one-time Bury player Michael Nelson at a combined age of 74. James Morris latched onto the latter’s dawdling to strike in the sixth minute somewhat against the general run of play in the first half. The keep-ball in the second period was beginning to sway things back in my favour, although a slew of opportunities came and went to increase the lead.

Curzon Ashton (h) – 2-0

Possibly the closest thing to a derby in the National League North, local hospitality was not offered on the pitch. Morris was the beneficiary of another Oure corner, latching on to a loose ball to nod home in the fifth minute – clearly, the extra training sessions dedicated to attacking set pieces were having their desired effect. Nicky Wroe (a former Bury loanee in 2006/2007) made Curzon’s task all the more difficult with a red card for a two-footed lunge. Oure and Morris combined once more for the former to volley in a second after a headed one-two. Four clean sheets in a row!

Spennymoor Town (a) – 1-3

Very little in the way of noteworthy action at either end in the opening 45. The encounter exploded into life when Oure was brought down by Stephen Brogan inside the area 10 minutes after the restart, and Morris made the most of the resultant spot-kick, tucking in his third of the nascent campaign. Spennymoor had several half-chances to level things up before right-back Ify Ofoegbu hit the woodwork. Lewis Landers was finally beaten in the 85th minute, courtesy of a wonder strike from 20 yards by Max Anderson. Brogan made amends for giving away the penalty by giving the hosts the lead in injury time, which was further cemented with the last kick of the game by Andrew Johnson.

Kidderminster Harriers (h) – 0-1

Fellow play-off hopefuls Kidderminster won a penalty after a needless push by Ross Woodcock from a free-kick, which Noah Chilvers duly dispatched. The youngster could’ve put the game beyond doubt in the second period but fluffed his lines. Nevertheless, it was a powder-puff performance that left with some concerns.

Farsley Celtic (a) – 1-1

Tom Heardman never kicked a meaningful ball in anger for Bury during his loan spell from Newcastle United in 2017/2018, returning to his parent club even before August was out. On this game however, he proved to be a thorn, just about staying onside to arc a shot into the far corner for Farsley. Skipper Winner Luabu sent a rocket against the bar as the Shakers piled forward in search of an equaliser. In the 86th minute, it arrived; Alfie Raw stole possession deep in the West Yorkshire outfit’s half, squaring it for Joe Thompson to stroke home. Dylon Meredith immediately killed any prospect of finding a winner with a horror tackle, receiving his marching orders as the game petered out.

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9th place and a steady start…

Can the new Shakers build on their upper mid-table position in September? Find out on Thursday…

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Buryball, Chapter 1: Anthony & the Johnson (Redux)

Buryball? Eh?” Confused? Read Chapter 0 for a short precis.

This is a reworked version of Chapter 1 – there were a number of issues with the save – changing/lowering the club’s reputation made it almost impossible from the outset; adding people as liked/disliked made them out to be alumni of 1885 Bury; I hadn’t loaded the ‘real name fix’ for some of the clubs – if I ever made it to the top table, Juventus would be Zebra, for example; the full release has fixed some minor bugs, too.

The people spoke. 1885 Bury would start in the National League North. A good thing, too, considering I got the official full release date of Football Manager 2020 wrong – it’s actually next Tuesday, not the traditional Friday that most video games come out on.

Still, a promise is a promise, and the game being in beta shouldn’t affect how the story unfolds too much. In case you’re unfamiliar with how Create-A-Club works on the Football Manager series, it lets you import your own logos (and kit if you’re particularly savvy) onto an existing club that you can then change pretty much every facet of, from little things like their likely minimum and maximum attendances for the league they’re competing in to the name and personnel.

For the purposes of Buryball, I wanted as clean a slate as possible, and crucially, to ‘replace’ a fan-owned club. The obvious candidates were Chester – the club culture is blank, which is a new and key feature of the game in this edition, and is amalgamated with the philosophies of previous years to give a more nuanced, easilly quantifiable assessment of how you’re performing in your role.

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Sorry, Seals! (To view any image in full size, open in a new tab and remove WordPress’ dimensions at the end of the URL).

The next step was to change the identity:

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The home and away shirts are modelled on the Legends Game that took place last month; the third kit is a close approximation of the first one ever worn by a club called ‘Bury FC’

For me, this had to go a bit deeper than simply the colours and stadium name (one of the locations that always used to be mooted if Bury did move grounds was in Pilsworth, an industrial estate in the east of the borough with motorway links).

When I finally got to the game proper, the club vision was laid out to me, and the task at hand was stark:

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Yeah, best of luck with that.

From next to nothing (no players, a skeleton crew comprising a backroom staff – I kept Shakers fan and ‘assistant manager’ Anthony Johnson on), I had seven weeks or so to assemble a squad capable of making the play-offs at a minimum in a notoriously tricky division. What’s worse, it seemed as though for a few of those weeks that I wouldn’t even be able to hire a Director of Football (granted, not many sixth tier clubs have one, but I always prefer having one on FM) – literally none were interested, so I had to place an advert in the vain hope of securing even an insipid one.

As for making signings, I decided to devise a tactic first – a contemporary 4-2-3-1 that favours using the flanks and retaining possession; it is sure to be tweaked and added to over the course of the campaign, and in time, I should have a solid ‘Plan B’. As there’s no academy in place (yet), I opted only to sign those under the age of 21, with hopefully a few of them developing well enough to be sold on for a profit that can then be invested primarily in the infrastructure if/when my standing is good enough with the board.

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Brackley Town await in the first ever competitive fixture for 1885 Bury., and it also represents many of the roster’s senior bows. Check back later tonight to see how it went, as well as the rest of August 2019 in-game…

Forest Green Rovers 0-1 Plymouth Argyle: Review

In my first ever trip to the New Lawn, I was witness to an entertaining but not shot-filled match between two ‘Green Armies’ in League Two. Were Plymouth Argyle deserved winners over then-leaders Forest Green Rovers? Read on to find out…

Taking my seat at the back of the West Stand near the players’ tunnel gave me a great view of the pitch, plus the body language of all the personnel at different intervals of the match. Plymouth manager Ryan Lowe was exuding positivity as he nearly always does in public, doubtlessly buoyed by the triumph the previous week over Bolton Wanderers in the FA Cup.

Just the one change from my predicted lineups and shapes in total – Joe Edwards was still at right wing-back (with Joe Riley on the bench), so Josh Grant got the nod at the base of the black and green central midfield. As expected, the majority of the opening exchanges in the first 10 minutes were down Forest Green’s right, and it looked for a time as though that would be the key battleground.

Beyond that area, the wider centre backs for Argyle were hitting balls early into the channels, looking for the runs of forwards Joel Grant and Byron Moore to beat any offside trap the compact hosts would attempt to spring. In truth, this strategy wasn’t working as planned. Not much was sticking to Moore, and Joel Grant was spending the majority of the time facing away from goal, holding onto possession for as long as he could in the hope of some more sprightly support from midfield.

Returning back to that flank, Callum McFadzean mistimed a header on the counter, but used his speed to recover extremely quickly, blocking a shot from Aaron Collins inside his own area after running way more than half the length of the pitch to atone for his error, As time ticked by though, there was less focus on that side, and the Nailsworth outfit were looking more centrally to try to bypass the opposition’s middle third. A further tame header on the 20th minute from Collins was the sum total of the table-toppers’ efforts in the first 45.

Instead, it was Lowe’s charges who grabbed the opener; a corner was worked short to Antoni Sarcevic, who was allowed to run laterally across the edge of the area unimpeded, bending an effort that might’ve taken a slight deflection during its travel into the far corner of the goal; the scorer celebrated in front of the travelling horde of Pilgrims with a knee slide (I just missed capturing that on camera!).

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There wasn’t much more action in the first period, but what was becoming apparent was that Edwards kept sitting narrow on the right even with the ball, and his compatriot on the opposite wing was causing some concern for the medical staff, going down twice in the 45 with an apparent injury. Luckily, it was nothing serious, but he didn’t reemerge for the second period.

Forest Green had taken things up to second gear in injury time, and I’d have been intrigued to have been in Mark Cooper’s dressing room during the interlude. A lot of what he’d instructed his side to do had worked – they’d nullfied their adversaries’ forwards in open play, Danny Mayor was shut down after a promising beginning to the fixture, and they were making Josh Grant work hard to recover possession in front of the Plymouth triumvirate in defence.

All that said, they needed to show a bit more adventure being a goal down, and McFadzean’s substitution ought to have handed them that. Riley came on in his place, which meant that Edwards shifted to the left. Immediately, I’d have made that wide space the focus of the Gloucestershire club’s forays forward – not because Edwards was a weak link, but simply because they could’ve sprang lots of two-on-one situations against a player who was distinctly right-footed, had a tendency to drift inside (like Mayor in front of him), and who had very little prior experience in that role. Indeed, Liam Shephard did initially look to exploit the gaps, but his crossing choices were woeful when he had the time and space to make more use of his new-found freedom.

The visitors’ own attacks weren’t finding their mark, either. When Moore and Joel Grant weren’t cut off completely, they had a tendency to operate in the same five yards, which meant there was seldom anyone to look for in the penalty area. Added to that, a series of sliced clearances from their teammates further back was putting them under unnecessary pressure, and Forest Green again stepped up their urgency in response, especially after Niall Canavan’s free header went wide.

The best move Forest Green made was with 25 minutes left on the clock. A great lay-off in the form of a cushioned header by Stevens was narrowly missed on the half-volley by Glasgow Celtic loanee Jack Aitchison. Had it been on target, it would’ve been the equaliser – Alex Palmer was rooted to the spot.

Shortly afterwards, Riley also went off injured, which meant another big switch-around for Lowe and assistant Steven Schumacher to contend with. Dom Telford, the former Bury striker, was introduced, which meant shifting Moore to right wing-back. I’m sure Moore himself would be the first to admit he’s not the most dogged defender; if he was deployed there for the Shakers, it usually meant they were the ones chasing the game, not the opposition.

Neverthless, a cleverly worked indirect free-kick by Sarcevic was almost converted by Telford via a flicked header backwards, proving once more that what he lacks in stature he makes up for in surprising aerial ability. The former’s game management was helping the visitors from Devon at least partially prevent wave after wave of lime green and black bursts forward in the last 20 minutes, which went a long way to confirming his deserved man of the match award (from an away perspective).

Although Forest Green were dominating possession in the closing 10 minutes, it never felt for me as though they had the nous to carve out a clear-cut chance. The back three they were facing defended stoutly, and the belated presence of Joel Taylor holding the ball up as far from Palmer’s goalmouth as possible ate up precious seconds for something to spark for their opponents.

Only with five minutes remaining did Cooper make a substitution, but it had little effect on the outcome. The closest his troops came to netting an equaliser was in injury time. A scuffed clearance by Scott Wootton, who’d otherwise barely put a foot wrong all game, resulted in a second successive corner. The ball seemed to ping about in the area, and a goal-bound effort from Shephard was stopped by Moore’s knee of all things.  Referee Sam Purkiss promptly cautioned Palmer for wasting time, which did little to relieve the ire he’d been subjected to from sections of the home crowd.

The final whistle sounded, and Forest Green were no longer top. In truth, for as much as praise can be given for their shape and thwarting of Plymouth’s threats in open play, they never truly looked like getting back into it; perhaps the late, single sub was an indication of the paucity of options in the squad to change the game, or a show of faith by Cooper in the starting XI to break down Argyle’s resistance.

For Lowe and Schumacher’s part, they’ll be pleased with a positive defensive showing, but will hope that Riley’s injury matches McFadzean’s in its short length out of contention. They now have a platform from which to ascend the standings further, and it’s unlikely their future opposition will be quite so compact on their own turf.

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Forest Green Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle: Preview

I’ll be making the short trip across Gloucestershire on Saturday to witness table-topping Forest Green Rovers take on an inconsistent Plymouth Argyle in League Two at The New Lawn – this is my preview of the game.

I’ll be one of the first to confess that I didn’t see Forest Green being top of the pile at this stage of the campaign. Shorn of both Reece Brown and Christian Doidge, coupled with a high turnover of personnel in the double digits both in and out of Nailsworth, it just didn’t have the makings from the outside looking in of an outfit that can boast the joint second meanest defence in the entirety of the EFL, as well as leading a very open looking fourth tier.

Boss Mark Cooper deserves plenty of credit for the manner in which he has gone about his business, and seems to have learned some of the harder lessons from 2018/2019 in the process. His tactical approach is now less dogmatic – no longer is possession for possession’s sake the default, and there is slightly more leeway allowed for defenders to clear their lines. He probably won’t be reading too much into the heavy EFL Trophy defeat earlier this week, given the number of changes made for everyone’s favourite cup competition™. The confident dispatching of potential banana skin Billericay Town in the FA Cup first round is far more indicative of their current standing, and another home draw against the now managerless Carlisle United represents a great chance to push on and get a plum tie in January.

In the away dugout will be Ryan Lowe and Steven Schumacher, fresh from their own topsy-turvy cup exploits over the past week. An impressive narrow victory at resurgent Bolton Wanderers in the FA Cup was followed up with a disappointing early exit without kicking a ball from the EFL Trophy – disappointing chiefly because the former Bury manager places a lot of emphasis on progressing in the thoroughly disliked competition.

Of more concern to the loyal but vocal fanbase will be the indifferent league form to date, although it must also be pointed out that they are still only eight points off the summit with a game in hand over most sides in the division. That’s unlikely to have much truck if there’s any repeats in the near future of the 4-0 derby defeat to Exeter City, with Lowe’s comments about it ‘being just another game’ inevitably drawing plenty of ire. In that regard, nothing has changed since leaving the stricken Shakers in the summer, but the best way of helping the Pilgrims faithful forget that painful loss would be to string a positive set of results together, starting on Saturday.

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Rovers have not a consistent shape all season, so I’ve gone with an educated guess as to how they might combat the visitors’ obvious talents in wide positions

As the caption above suggests, Cooper has not stuck to a single formation for very long but without the usual possible pitfalls that such a strategy could entail, just as often employing wing-backs as he does a more traditional flat four. Given that it’s almost certain Callum McFadzean and Danny Mayor will work in tandem down the left for Plymouth, it would seem prudent for the numbers to match up on that flank.

Whether it’s been Lewis Thomas or Joe Wollacott as the custodian, they have both kept clean sheets in more than half their outings; Thomas was rewarded for shutting out the opposition five games in a row with a contract extension until 2021. He is slightly more confident at taking crosses than the Bristol City loanee, but together, they have been a huge component of how miserly the Green Devils have been.

Whichever one is selected, they will usually distribute the ball to the centre back pairing of Liam Kitching and Farrend Rawson, who will split when Forest Green are on the attack further up the pitch, and they themselves will push quite high in an attempt to keep the majority of play in the opposition’s own third. Rawson is still improving at just 23, and rarely loses a defensive duel, ranking as the best in the league in that metric.

Captain Joseph Mills has been a potent source of goals from the left thus far, notching five and providing three for his teammates. While the majority of those have come from the penalty spot, Joe Riley (if fit) will need to be extremely wary about leaving space in behind himself. The skipper is more willing and adept than most of his contemporaries at using his weaker foot, and the accuracy of his low crosses is something Lowe will need to pay plenty of heed to.

Dom Bernard is more conservative with his output (if not his runs). The Irish youngster can operate in a multitude of different positions, but has been used at right-back frequently. His accurate passing keeps things ticking over for his side, and he too often finds his intended target in the area.

Carl Winchester is a metronome as one half of the double pivot in midfield. Whilst not the most sprightly in the air, he will be key to the hosts dictating the tempo of the game. Ebou Adams does most of the mopping up in front of the high backline, giving the defence the confidence to maintain that level of engagement.

Elliott Frear, who signed on a short-term basis last month, has been recently selected on as the left-sided attacking midfield/winger of choice. He will be hoping to earn a longer deal, and if his composed control and finish in the El Glosico derby away at Cheltenham Town is a sign of things to come, he has a decent chance. It will take him more time to make the necessary adjustments tactically, but he’s another Plymouth need to be mindful of.

Jack Aitchison has been playing off the striker in green and black, and comes into the encounter at the weekend in a rich vein of form in front of goal. His quick feet and coolness under pressure are what have marked his strikes to date. Less likely to turn provider than most in his position, he will be instead look to ‘shadow’ Matty Stevens and work the space to shoot.

Liam Shephard is the optimal candidate to be in advance of Bernard. Returning to the McFadzean-Mayor axis for a moment, he is equally at home further back as he is coming into the attacking third. There might be plenty of opportunities for him to go beyond his marker and blunt the efficacy of that duo.

The aforementioned Stevens hasn’t been prolific at the time of writing, but is tracking at hitting the target just under half the time he gets a shot off, which is encouraging for his future place in the XI. Just at home trying to take the ball past his marker as he is being the focal point of the attack, that duality should stand him in good stead against a back three who aren’t at their best when dealing with a target man.

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Undoubtedly, there have been some tweaks to Ryan Lowe’s preferred shape since taking charge at Home Park, but it is still ostensibly a 3-5-2, with the wing-backs performing much more closely to the the traditional winger role.

Alex Palmer is apt to stray off his line during matches, acting very much as a sweeper keeper in the modern style. The wider centre backs, captain Gary Sawyer and (most likely) Scott Wootton, work diligently to supply McFadzean and the returning Joe Riley for the pair to bomb forwards. Sawyer has been crucial in intercepting loose balls in his quadrant, as well as preventing an opposing winger pulling the defensive unit out of sync. Wootton isn’t normally kept quite as busy on the counter, and is a more assured aerial presence. Niall Canavan is the mid-point of the triumvirate, and is the best placed to catch the attention of the opposing striker. As a collective, they need to make more out of attacking set pieces, having scored just once between them.

Most regular readers of this blog will know all about McFadzean and Riley from their Gigg Lane days. The former has added an ingredient that eluded him in white and dark blue – a goalscoring end product. Down in Devon, he’s already halfway to double digits, accruing five from just seven shots on target in all competitions! Whether by instruction or inclination from previous successes, he’s already got off more shots as a whole in November than he did in the totality of his season with Bury.  His link-up play with Mayor sees the majority of attacks come down Argyle’s left as you’d perhaps expect, although he has also formed a good understanding with George Cooper during the talisman’s absences.

On the right, Riley is renowned in lower league circles for having a pop from distance – only one of his nine efforts in the league has come inside the 18-yard box. His clever direct free-kick against Northampton Town is evidence of his increased utility in more situations. His presence in the XI gives a better balance to the shape.

Joe Edwards is nominally the most defensive of the midfield three. He will cover ground laterally to help diminish the likelihood of the opposition creating two-on-one passages of play down the flanks, and is the bulwark against quick breaks in the middle. He won’t venture too far away from his position, but has been effective as an extra body at the far post when the need arises.

Whenever I used to see Antoni Sarcevic’s name on the teamsheet against Bury, I was always concerned. A very talented player still in his prime years, the Serbian will shuttle between defensive and attacking duties, offering an option inside to Riley to perform a give-and-go, and probably has a better passing range than Mayor, attempting his fair share of through balls to the front two with a considerable degree of success.

Mayor needs little introduction. He probably hasn’t been at his sparkling best consistently for Argyle, but a concerted run in the side free from injury should facilitate that happening. He’ll always be the target of kicks, and is now mature enough to understand that without being petulant. He remains one of the elite of the division, able to slalom past defenders with his close dribbling skills, cut inside from the wing, and drift away from his marker with ominous ease. The battle down that flank will decide the outcome of Saturday’s fixture.

Joel of the burgeoning Grant ‘family’ will lead the line in black and green. Just like strike partner Byron Moore, he has gradually been used up front more and more in his career after previously plying his trade as a winger. This can be a double-edged sword in practice, but it does mean that they both retain the ability and pace to be unpredictable in their movement, and happy to take up positions in the half-space to make their marker think carefully about whether to close them down and risk creating an opening or hang back several yards and risk ‘allowing’ them to shoot or pass unchallenged. Lowe can also call on Dom Telford from the bench to offer a more direct path to goal.

As for a prediction, I think Forest Green’s defensive record will come under severe threat on Saturday. The expansive way Lowe’s sides play will almost always mean there are spaces to exploit if given the chance, although he has mixed things up of late by instructing the wing-backs to play longer balls into the channels for the forwards to run onto and hold up. Either way, it has all the makings of an excellent spectacle for a netural – 2-2.

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Buryball, Chapter 0: Buryball is Back on Football Manager 2020!

It’s that time once more. With this year’s edition of Football Manager released officially in two days from now, I have listened to all my fans* who begged and pleaded with me to bring back my unique take on the ‘Moneyball’ philosophy, and how it can be used and refined with Bury.

Of course, this season is different. It will have escaped no-one’s attention whatsoever that the Shakers in real life were expelled from the EFL back in August, which from an FM perspective put my continued voluntary position as researcher for the club in serious jeopardy. Like everyone else, I have no idea what the short-term future holds for the ‘old’ (limited) company, although my bet would still be on (a very drawn out) liquidation.

I am but one of over 200 people involved in some small way with setting up a phoenix club, but as the likelihood of any FA application would place the new entity in either the eighth tier (Northern Premier League Division One North West) or ninth (North West Counties Premier Division), they would only be included in Football Manager 2021 on the database, and not a playable club in the base game.

That said, there are always downloadable add-ons on the Steam client; one of the most popular of these is the enfranchisement of all the clubs from the 10th tier up – that is the lowest step where all divisions run in parallel. In total, it brings another 893 English teams into the playable fold, and there is more research than ever that goes into ensuring the data that far down is accurate.

How does any of that affect Buryball, you ask? Well, the ‘old’ club are still on the game, sans any coaching staff (except Paul Wilkinson), official badge or kits. I’m unsure what the mechanism is for a side being promoted to the National League North/South on the base game. From an anecdotal perspective, I have play-tested Leicester City in the beta, and in the third season, Bury are still not back in the league system.

It is possible to use an in-game editor to manipulate events so that they’re returned to the ‘fold’, but I think that goes against the spirit of things somewhat. My preferred option is to use the ‘Create-A-Club’ mode, which lets you edit an existing club from the start, change the colours, badge, stadium, and so on. The biggest dilemma is whether to do this in the National League North or one of the lower tiers mentioned aboveI’ll be putting a poll out on Twitter after publishing this blog to let you decide.

So… what exactly is Buryball, anyway? In previous editions, it was my twist on the mantra of finding hidden gems, developing young players, and selling them on if a bid came in above their in-game value. Obviously, if I start out in the ninth tier, that will be harder to do at first – it might be that the vast majority of the personnel are on amateur contracts, not drawing a salary at all. It could make for a challenging start.

The aim of the save isn’t simply to get back to the EFL. It’s to do it in a sustainable way. Therefore, these are the rules I must follow during my stint in charge:

  • Net wage spend is more important than transfer spend, but…
  • The club cannot make a net loss in the transfer market outside of the first season in the Premier League (should I get that far).
  • Primarily, invest in infrastructure over new players.
  • The best way to improve a team is by identifying and replacing the weakest links, rather than by splashing out on making the best links even better.
  • Most fans value seeing players come through the youth academy system over other 16-20 year old signings, especially those who are on loan.

On reflection, I had too many rules when I’ve attempted this before – stripping them down to five makes them both more memorable and pertinent to the game.

As I detailed on Monday, I’m looking to be writing/publishing something on here or elsewhere every weekday. For that to work with Buryball, each chapter will probably encapsulate a month or so of in-game time. I hope you’ll find this redux enjoyable, and if you have any questions, suggestions, or feedback, do feel free to let me know!

Crewe Alexandra Tactical Analysis

How have Crewe Alexandra banished the away days of the previous campaign under David Artell in the opening three months of the 2019/2020 season in League Two? Let’s take a look.

League Results to Date & General Performances

(Crewe score first in red):

Plymouth Argyle (h): 0-3
Oldham Athletic (a): 2-1
Walsall (h): 1-0
Crawley Town (a): 2-1
Newport County (a): 0-1
Bradford City (h): 2-1
Grimsby Town (a): 2-0
Cambridge United (h): 2-3
Leyton Orient (a): 2-1
Salford City (h): 4-1
Cheltenham Town (a): 1-1
Exeter City (h): 1-1
Carlisle United (a): 4-2
Swindon Town (h): 3-1
Colchester United (a): 0-0
Port Vale (h): 0-1

David Artell has enjoyed a much better start to the league campaign than he managed at the same juncture in 2018/2019. The first match was certainly inauspicious in its scoreline, but the 3-0 reverse was by no means reflective of the Railwaymen’s performance. They then rallied to triumph in five of the next half-dozen, a narrow loss at Newport County bisecting that run.

Paul Green’s first-half dismissal scuppered their chances of holding onto the lead whilst hosting Cambridge United, which they impressively gained at one point despite being a man light. The thrashing of Salford City ably demonstrated what the young squad are capable of, and two creditable draws with likely fellow top-seven chasing sides helped to cement their own credentials.

Seven goals in the space of two games has now segued into two without any – there have been noticeably fewer chances created in the latter, and the narrow ‘derby’ loss to visitors Port Vale was of particular disappointment to supporters.

Most Used Shape & Starting XI

Crewe 1920


Tactical Approach

For as long as I can remember, Alex have prided themselves on playing a progressive style, utilising their extremely reputable and productive academy to both keep the wage bill down and the potential future fees for the cream of the crop higher. This is no different in 2019. Will Jääskeläinen has established himself as first choice stopper at just 21 – his distribution is instructed to be shorter, with the flying full-backs the usual recipients.

Eddie Nolan and Nicky Hunt will split in possession, passing the ball laterally to their respective flanks. Hunt, now converted to centre-back in his advanced years, will also cover in behind his partner as a safety measure against playing a higher line, or to receive a pass from the goalkeeper. The duo will also both join in attacking set pieces, offering alternative outlets to the target man.

Harry Pickering gallops up the surface to support Charlie Kirk, and will sometimes overlap him to put crosses in or drift inside to make the opposition think twice about attacking through the middle. Captain Perry Ng fulfils a similar role when deployed on the right.

Ryan Wintle is the most defensive-minded of the central midfield triumvirate. He will box off the spaces vacated by Paul Green and Tom Lowery, sweeping up after them when the turnover occurs. Green offers a deeper angle to attempt crosses from, as well as being a long-distance shooter. Lowery places more emphasis on being part of the attacking phases, and always tries to get forward.

Nobody has nailed down the right-wing berth when the formation is a 4-3-3, but Owen Dale has spent the most time there. Assisted by Ng, he will whip low balls into Chris Porter’s feet. The veteran striker either comes short to join in the approach play or more usually loiters inside the area, especially on the six-yard line.

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Collective Strengths & Weaknesses

The roster this term is a year older. Whilst that sounds like a stunningly obvious statement to make, few other clubs in the EFL will have quite the age profile of the first team as they do at Gresty Road. Most of the ones on the younger end of the spectrum have plenty of gametime under their belts, belying their youth.

The two shapes most often utilised make full use of the speed and width in the team – a slight bias to the right channel (40% to 36%) is apparent, with Ng and Dale given more freedom to dribble than their counterparts. They also rank highly for playing in their own third, which is indicative of not rushing their passing, making the ball do the work to draw out the opposition and find pockets of space to get around their press.

An element which is both a strength and a weakness is the efficacy of the strategy lives and dies on how close Porter’s teammates can get to him in open play. If the wide men are stymied, it can be hard for them to get any meaningful supply to him, and the starting positions of the central midfielders are relatively deep. It therefore falls on Crewe to dominate possession in order to creep up the pitch, balancing the need to support Porter with not being caught on the break.

Individual Strengths & Weaknesses

Working backwards from the forward line, Porter is one of the best in the lower leagues at finishing his chances at close range, especially with his head. His movement and vast experience are bulwarks against his ageing legs, and his goals are positive proof that there is still a niche in an evolving sport for a player that makes clever runs over needlessly depleting their stamina.

Charlie Kirk is one of the most exciting talents in League Two, being their creator-in-chief from out wide and the most confident at running with the ball past an opponent, seldom dwelling on it or not looking up to see who’s making themselves available for a possible pass.

Tom Lowery’s goalscoring contributions from the middle to date have helped ease the burden on Porter to a certain degree, but hasn’t managed a single shot on target in the last four games, taking the gloss off the assists he made in both of the first two of that tranche a little.

Perry Ng continues to mature and impress in equal measure. His versatility is a huge boon to his employers, and his accuracy from a range of different passing styles and distances helps no end in ensuring Alex are the most dominant side in the fourth tier in possession. He still has work to do in an aerial sense, and some teams do target his flank as a possible area to exploit in that manner.

Conclusions

Last season, Artell did an interview with the excellent D3D4 Football, in which he also fielded questions sent in on social media. I asked him whether there was anything psychological behind the travails on the road, and he seemed to suggest that there was a kernel of truth to that, which lay in the mentality of his young squad. At the time of writing, they have collectively consigned that to history; in the seven fixtures on the road in 2019/2020, they have already won more (five) than the totality of 2018/2019 (four). Had their away form been even a little less woeful, they might have sneaked into the play-offs.

Currently in fourth and just a single point from the summit, there’s every reason to suggest they now have what it takes to mount a serious promotion challenge. Granted, their depth doesn’t compare to that of, say, Bradford City, but if they can avoid lengthy injuries to Porter and Kirk, and possibly recruit another striker in the January transfer window, they might make the return to the third tier after a four-year absence. The manager will be thanking the board if that does transpire for sticking with him during the difficulties last term. Many other clubs would’ve taken a different stance.

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More is More!

Last week, I did a poll on Twitter to see if there was any appetite for me to write more on this blog and on other sites:

I appreciate the sample size is small, but I only held the poll for a single day and never retweeted it. In any case, I was glad that the response was overwhelmingly positive. I want to write more without compromising on the quality.

The new aim is to write or have something published every single weekday. Not writing for writing’s sake, not all on the same subject or the same style, short but meaningful pieces are okay… you get the picture.

Here’s a flavour of what’s still to come this month:

  • A tactical analysis of Crewe Alexandra in League Two thus far this season.
  • The (re-)launch of Buryball when Football Manager 2020 comes out of beta on or as close to this Friday as possible – this will be a near-daily, episodic look at the fight to get a club bearing the Bury name back into the EFL.
  • A review of two books – ‘One Football, No Nets‘ by Justin Whalley, and ‘State of Play: Under the Skin of the Modern Game by the renowned sportswriter Michael Calvin.
  • A preview and match report from Forest Green Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle this weekend.
  • Any changes to the ‘old’ Bury FC situation in real life and/or shareable phoenix club news.

As you can guess by that commitment above if you weren’t already aware, being a freelance writer is now my job. I want that to continue for a long time to come. I need your support for this to happen, and this can be given in a number of ways:

  1. Simply reading my blog.
  2. Sharing and/or liking my blog on social media.
  3. A one-off donation of a fixed amount of $3 on Ko-fi or as little or as much as you like on PayPal.
  4. Become a Patron for $3 a month – choosing this option lets you suggest articles for me to write about!
  5. Subscribe to my weekly email on Substack, which will launch in December.

I have realised that I can’t expect people to support me without stepping up what I do, too. It’s a two-way street.

If you have any feedback about me, what I write, my blog, or any of the offers above, please get in touch on here or on social media.

Oxford United Tactical Analysis

How have Oxford United become a free-scoring side under Karl Robinson in the opening three months of the 2019/2020 season in League One? Let’s take a look.

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League Results to Date & General Performances

(Oxford score first in dark yellow):

Sunderland (a): 1-1
Peterborough United (h): 1-0
Blackpool (a): 1-2
Burton Albion (h): 2-4
Bristol Rovers (a): 1-3
Coventry City (h): 3-3
Fleetwood Town (a): 1-2
Tranmere Rovers (h): 3-0
Bolton Wanderers (a): 0-0
Lincoln City (a): 6-0
Gillingham (h): 3-0
Accrington Stanley (a): 2-2
Doncaster Rovers (h): 3-0
Rotherham United (a): 2-1
Rochdale (h): 3-0
Portsmouth (a): 1-1

A hugely encouraging first ‘third’, which in many ways has felt like a continuation of the recovery from the previous campaign. The customary low-scoring draw involving Sunderland was followed up by what looks increasingly like a huge three points at home to Peterborough United as the weeks go by. An experimental switch in shape to a 4-1-4-1 ought to have yielded something from the trip to Bloomfield Road to face Blackpool, but was instead the heralding of a barren run of five without a win, despite scoring eight in that period.

The rot was halted when hosting Tranmere Rovers, and whilst supporters would doubtlessly have felt frustrated after the stalemate with bottom side Bolton Wanderers, the subsequent two had them purring with delight, watching the Yellows annihilate Lincoln City and Gillingham, racking up nine goals in the space of a week.

Accrington Stanley provided a much sterner examination of their credentials than might have been expected by some onlookers, but ‘normal service’ was then resumed, impressively dispatching likely top six rivals Doncaster Rovers and Rotherham United. Holding Rochdale at arm’s length was followed up last weekend by a late equaliser against an underachieving Portsmouth, stretching their unbeaten streak in the league to nine matches and counting.

Most Used Shape & Starting XI

Oxford 1920
Although a 4-2-3-1 has been used slightly more than the shape above, this is the one that is currently utilised and has yielded the best results


Tactical Approach

I’ve been a vocal critic of Karl Robinson in the past, having seen several times at close quarters in recent years an extremely predictable formation and tactical approach. Previously, it would consist of playing out from the back slowly, letting the full backs gallop up the pitch whilst the double pivot sought to dictate the tempo. The attacking midfield trio would be the most important members of the XI, acting as the runners in behind a target man, the suppliers of the sole striker from crosses, and the pressers in an attempt to force the opposition to go long and cede possession.

Whilst there have been elements of that at the Kassam Stadium since he took charge, sometimes as a writer, you have to admit that someone you admired as a coach but not as a tactician has evolved their thinking.

Goalkeeper Simon Eastwood’s attributes are strong across the board, and he has formed a strong bond with the four in front of him, rarely needing to stray off his line to intercept a dangerous pass or loose ball. Instructed to kick short rather than throw, he can rely on the likes of skipper John Mousinho to accurately pick out a teammate. Alongside him is Rob Dickie, who is given more licence than most centre backs to stride forwards with the ball and attempt killer passes.

On the flanks, Josh Ruffels and Columbus Crew loanee Chris Cadden balance progressive and defensive duties; they’re not as often looked to as most modern full-backs to provide the width, but will offer their support when possession needs to be recycled or the play is switched. Anchorman Alex Rodríguez Gorrín covers the ground both laterally and vertically behind the rest of the midfield, mopping up high passes in the air and putting his foot in when necessary on the ground to halt counters and stop attacks dead.

Understandably, most of his own passes will be short to the likes of Cameron Brannagan and James Henry.  The duo’s willingness and propensity to shoot from range has been instrumental in a large number of the goals thus far. Their dynamism helps what could otherwise be a defensive-looking posture in a different manager’s hands become very offensive and effectual.

Rob Hall hasn’t had the lion’s share of gametime on the right flank, but uses his pace and strong left foot to occupy and go beyond his marker, dragging the unit out of their line in the process. Tarique Fosu intelligently takes up positions in the half-space to shoot from, offering an outlet more centrally. Matty Taylor presses the backline as a whole, often standing in an offside position to fool his marker. He is the focal point for crosses whilst not being a classic target man, offering more to the team in different phases.

Collective Strengths & Weaknesses

Two aspects stand out: the sheer volume and distribution of the goals scored to date, plus the very high level of flexibility in the squad as a whole. Any team that’s reliant on a single individual to put the ball in the net is likely to have either a fallow period if and when that player’s form dips or they become unavailable. There have been 10 different league goalscorers, but more significantly, three of them have five or more already, all of whom operate in midfield.

On the latter aspect, every outfielder in the graphic above with the exception can comfortably operate in completely discrete positions to where they’ve been most commonly placed this season, which means that Robinson should be able to mould them as the context changes better than most of his rivals will be able to in League One.

If there is an area that can be improved, it is in regard to set pieces. Already in 2019/2020, Oxford have conceded six from dead balls, ranking them as one of the most leaky in that metric across the division as a whole. Given the height and aerial prowess in the ranks, there are reasons to suggest it’s more a deficiency in organisation and application than in any inherent physical disadvantage; as such, it might be possible to reduce the frequency more easily.

Individual Strengths & Weaknesses

The U’s have individual talent in abundance. Dickie has firmly established himself as one of the best centre-backs in the third tier at the age of just 23; Brannagan is the all-action central midfielder that supporters crave and the modern game increasingly requires; Fosu, reunited with Robinson after moving from Charlton, has found his niche. There are just a few examples of who the manager can call upon to change a game or preserve their advantage.

Whilst the shot data suggests that Fosu and Henry to a lesser extent won’t quite keep up their records in 2019/2020, the burden being spread so widely ensures that if one or both of them regress back to the mean in the coming weeks, it might not have too negative an effect.

Simon Eastwood hasn’t been at his imperious best, conceding 19 against an xGA of 16.67 – however, it would be an exaggeration to say he hasn’t been reasonably solid. Jamie Mackie continues to underperform, but will be thankful he’s not being relied upon to score unlike some parts of the last campaign.

Conclusions

This could be a special season for Oxford United. Putting aside the league for a minute, they’re in the quarter finals of the EFL Cup where they will pit their wits against Premier League champions Manchester City for the second year in a row. They have an excellent chance of reaching at least the second round of the FA Cup after being drawn against seventh tier Hayes & Yeading, and are also assured of a place in the knockout stages of the EFL Trophy.

An argument has been made that there isn’t a single outstanding team in League One this season. Whilst that’s not the view I take, some of the more fancied sides are not living up to their billing, and Oxford have had the beating of quite a few of them already. There are players like Shandon Baptiste who continue to impress despite their youth, and, if developed sensibly and sold at the right time, could help to substantially alleviate any lingering off-field issues centring around the lease on the stadium.

Robinson has successfully evolved the style he was hitherto renowned for – he’ll likely always favour a possession-based strategy, but gone is the ponderousness when attacking. They now do it with vigour and a swagger at times, rotating the personnel to keep the opposition’s analysis team guessing. They have the wherewithal to remain in the play-offs at a minimum, providing the cups don’t curb their league form significantly.

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